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  • Writer's pictureOliver Kay

Luton Town vs West Brom match preview: Form, h2h and score prediction

Luton Town welcome a West Brom side who have shot up the table under Carlos Corberan and now sit in 9th place just 1 point behind Luton Town. The all star Championship team that was assembled by Steve Bruce has now kicked into gear with their last 10 Championship games yielding 8 wins and 2 losses. Although things are all perfect on the pitch, a big dark cloud overhead for West Brom is their off the pitch matters, with their owner leveraging the future of the club by taking out a £20 million loan, which highlights what a precarious position West Brom are currently in, with this loan in essence acting as a big bet that West Brom will make it back into the Premier League.

Underlying Statistics

West Brom have conceded the most penalties (4) in the Championship, so it would be a good chance potentially for Luton Town to stretch their legs from 10 yards, as we are the only team along with Bristol City yet to be awarded a penalty this season. Their recent form has seen West Brom jump up the rankings to 6th in goals scored per match (1.3), which sees them ranked 6th currently. In John Swift, West Brom have the creator of the third highest amount of big chances in the league (11), he is behind Ryan Giles of Middlesbrough (13), and our very own James Bree (12). West Brom appear to be better at home rather than away. In the home table they sit 6th with 6 wins 4 draws and 4 losses, having played 14. Whereas on their travels, having played 12 they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses. This may be a result of them simply having played more at home, and their poor start under managerial icon/amateur crime writer Steve Bruce. They will be a tough team to break down, with Corberan liking his team to see a lot of the ball. West Brom are currently ranked 5th in the league for possession stats, seeing an average of 55.4% of the ball, in comparison to Luton’s 43.3%. They are also ranked 4th in the league with 10 clean sheets, averaging just 1 goal conceded per game, as well as a low xG conceded of 25.3, meaning it will be tough to create good chances. In addition to this they will also create a lot of chances, especially from crosses, ranking 5.3 accurate crosses per game (6th highest), and 38 big chances created in all games this season (3rd highest).

Players to watch out for There are a few players to watch out for. Both John Swift and Jed Wallace were talismanic figures for Reading and Millwall, respectively. Often teams are lucky to have one player with such high levels of creativity, West Brom have two. So far Wallace has scored 4 goals, Swift 3 goals. Both have laid on 5 assists for their team mates with an expected assists (xA) of 5.5 for Jed Wallace and 5.3 for John Swift.

Brandon Thomas-Asante has really stepped up since being signed from Salford City. At Salford he scoring 1 goal every 4 games, whereas at West Brom, with the abundance of delicious balls from Wallace and Swift, he has knocked it up to 1 goal every 2 games. He is currently top scorer with 5 goals, fortunately he has been retrospectively banned for three matches for violent conduct during the FA Cup tie against Chesterfield. However, Daryl Dike is now back and eager to prove a point. He’s being eased back into action having not yet played a full 90 minutes, but we all saw what Dike is capable of from the Barnsley match during their 20/21 playoff push. Okay Yokuslu was an astute piece of business for West Brom, having enjoyed his 16 appearances so much at West Brom, that he decided to join on a free transfer from Celta Vigo. He is an old fashioned tough tackling midfield general, who also has an eye for goal with 3 notched already this season.

Prediction I don’t believe the Kenny is a fortress just yet. I believe West Brom will take the 3 points back to the Midlands. 1-2 West Brom. Likely Lineup

Horvath, Potts, Lockyer, Osho, Bree, Doughty, Watson, Clark, Campbell, Morris, Adebayo

Head to head record (previous 6 matches)

Luton 1 win – 1 Draw – West Brom 4 wins

14th August 2018 West Brom 1 – 0 Luton Town EFL Cup

17th August 2019 Luton Town 1 – 2 West Brom Championship

1st February 2020 West Brom 2 – 0 Luton Town Championship

14th August 2021 West Brom 3 – 2 Luton Town Championship

19th February 2022 Luton Town 2 – 0 West Brom Championship

8th October 2022 West Brom 0 – 0 Luton Town Championship

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